Predictions for 2016

In keeping with my tradition of shamelessly cribbing from Scott Alexander, I’m going to make some predictions about the coming year — and in January 2017, I’m going to grade those predictions based on my stated level of confidence in them today.

I’m kind of hoping that these predictions turn out to be either ludicrously overconfident or way too cautious, just because they seem relatively sensible to me, and having to re-evaluate my idea of “sensible” sounds like an adventure. Here goes.

World News/Events

  1. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee: 90%
  2. There will be no significant change to LDS teaching on gender or sexuality: 90%
  3. Neither ISIS nor Bashar al-Assad will be removed from power in Syria: 80%
  4. No large-scale US ground offensive in any country: 80%
  5. Congress will not pass any new legislation restricting gun ownership: 80%
  6. Black Lives Matter will lose momentum, fade from prominence: 70%
  7. Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee: 70%
  8. China’s birth rate will stay below 1.7 births per woman: 70%
  9. Independence Day reboot will receive a Rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes: 70%
  10. Rogue One will receive a Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes: 70%
  11. No head of state of any country outside Africa will be forcibly deposed: 60%
  12. ISIS will not attack or claim responsibility for violence in Jordan or Israel: 60%
  13. The S&P 500 will have a return of 10% or more: 60%
  14. Oil will be less than $100/barrel: 60%
  15. Congress will not pass any new legislation restricting abortion: 60%
  16. President Obama will not close Guantanamo Bay: 50%
  17. No significant escalation in the Israel/Palestine conflict: 50%
  18. President Monson will pass away and Russell M. Nelson will succeed him: 50%
  19. Marco Rubio will be elected President of the United States: 50%
  20. George R.R. Martin will publish The Winds of Winter: 50%

Personal Life

  1. My wife will give birth to a healthy boy: >90%
  2. I will not be involved in a physical confrontation of any kind: >90%
  3. We will move out of state: >90%
  4. I will prefer our new location to our present one: 80%
  5. I will maintain my present weight within ten pounds: 80%
  6. I will be as exhausted with Fallout 4 as I was with Skyrim a year after: 80%
  7. I will publish at least 25 posts on this site: 70%
  8. My hair will thin past the “point of no return” (I’ll have to keep it buzzed): 70%
  9. A tool I am developing at work will be completed and implemented: 70%
  10. I will vote for the Republican candidate in the 2016 Presidential election: 60%
  11. I will make at least one new, close friend: 60%
  12. Our household will have positive net cash flow in all quarters of 2016: 60%
  13. I will write something that I will publish somewhere other than this site: 50%
  14. I will acquire a new hobby: 50%
  15. I will be able to bench press more than my body weight: 50%


Predictions for 2016