Predictions for 2017

World News/Events

  1. Donald Trump will not be removed from office: 90%
  2. No new conflict with 100+ US casualties: 90%
  3. Logan will receive a Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes: 90%
  4. At least one mass shooting in the US, 10+ casualties: 90%
  5. Obergefell v. Hodges will not be revisited by the Supreme Court: 90%
  6. No regime change/civil war/interstate conflict in East Asia: 90%
  7. None of Trump’s cabinet appointees will be rejected by Congress: 80%
  8. Oil will be less than $80/barrel: 80%
  9. Congress will not pass restrictions on lobbying or term limits: 80%
  10. At least two Islamist terror attacks in Europe, 20+ casualties: 80%
  11. War for the Planet of the Apes will be rated lower than the first two films: 80%
  12. Situation in Ukraine will neither resolve nor significantly deteriorate: 80%
  13. No major diplomatic/military confrontation between EU and Russia: 80%
  14. Dakota Access Pipeline gets built: 80%
  15. Justice League will receive a Rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes: 70%
  16. S&P 500 annual return will be higher than 10%: 70%
  17. Death toll in Syrian civil war will fall relative to 2016: 70%
  18. Individual mandate/pre-existing conditions coverage will not be changed: 70%
  19. No significant escalation in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict: 70%
  20. Donald Trump’s approval ratings will not be >60% or <35%: 70%
  21. One country in the EU will leave/announce plans to leave: 70%
  22. Angela Merkel loses re-election bid: 60%
  23. No outright coup or rebellion in Venezuela: 60%
  24. EM Drive results widely accepted as valid: 60%
  25. The “Iran deal” will not be dismantled/significantly modified: 60%
  26. Returns to big-five defense contractors will beat the S&P 500: 60%
  27. Democrats will attempt to filibuster the nominee to replace Justice Scalia: 60%
  28. Deportations will not increase by more than 20% of Obama admin levels: 60%
  29. President Monson will die and be succeeded by Russell M Nelson: 50%
  30. One Supreme Court justice will die or retire: 50%

Personal Life

  1. I will still live in my current house: 90%
  2. I will not be the victim of a crime: 90%
  3. I will panic expensively (>$300) over what, in hindsight, was not a problem: 80%
  4. My life will not be directly impacted by the election: 80%
  5. I will love Civilization VI and hate myself: 80%
  6. I will write at least five times here: 70%
  7. I will have a second car: 70%
  8. I will have a firearm: 70%
  9. My youngest child will start talking: 70%
  10. No one I know will be directly impacted by the election: 70%
  11. My oldest child will start reading simple words: 60%
  12. My income will increase by >5%: 60%
  13. Our household will have positive net cashflow in 3/4 quarters: 60%
  14. I will leave the Continental US at least once: 60%
Predictions for 2017

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